Local officials urge caution in analyzing reported numbers in new database
The introduction of a statewide database of coronavirus cases in schools brought unwanted attention to one local district.
While no other district in the area reported any confirmed cases of the virus in its student body, Marysville posted the highest total number of impacted students and staff in the state.
But, local officials are urging families to view the information with a grain of salt.
Based on the Ohio Department of Health figures, Marysville has had 11 student cases and four staff cases of COVID-19, although Marysville Superintendent Diane Allen said at Thursday night’s board of education meeting that the staff number is five. The information from the state is not broken down by building.
Of those cases, four students and two staff members are considered new cases that have been reported in the last week.
Because the numbers were released only a few hours before the meeting, Allen told the board that she was unsure of the accuracy of the figures. She said it is possible that the reporting criteria varies from district to district.
“It’s a brand new tool and I would just ask everyone to keep that in mind,” Allen said.
Union County Health Commissioner Jason Orcena shared a similar sentiment, and encouraged families “not to interpret anything just yet.”
While the vast majority of the more than 2,700 entities — public school districts, private schools, charter schools and licensed before- and after-school programs — reported no cases, Orcena emphasized there is “complexity” to the data.
Like Allen, he said the reporting mechanism used to create the ODH school dashboard is “completely new.”
Although the data is now accessible to the public, he said school districts and local health departments are still working to determine: “Is everyone on the same page?”
Between a new system and a “fairly short turnaround,” Orcena said there are “inconsistencies” in the data reported by the state.
Most importantly, he said he “cannot answer” whether the state dashboard listing “no cases reported,” genuinely means there aren’t any cases in that district, or if it could mean the state hasn’t received their data yet.
He also said some schools weren’t in session until more recently and “how those get reported is still being discussed.”
Additionally, Orcena said there is no indication in the dashboard of which schools are teaching in-person versus virtually, which impacts reporting and the data.
The health commissioner said the way data is reported is also somewhat unclear at this point.
For instance, he said individual school districts were given the option as to whether they wanted to include the new cases in the cumulative case count, which could make it appear higher.
But, there is no marker in the dashboard that indicates how a district chose to report that data.
Orcena said the goal of the state dashboard is to report the most accurate data in the most concise way, but “you can’t do that in one report.”
He said there is a “shakeout period” for the new dashboard but if families “give it a couple of weeks,” the data should normalize.
“It seems so simple but when you start to dig into it, it becomes very complex,” Orcena said.
For now, the health commissioner said he is not very concerned about the case count at Marysville schools.
He said new case counts in “comparable communities” were similar, although Marysville’s cumulative number is higher.
Orcena specifically mentioned Olentangy and Dublin schools as “suburban, fast-growing” districts with comparable numbers.
Dublin City Schools have five new student cases and two new staff cases. Olentangy Local Schools have five new student cases and four new staff cases. Both districts have the same cumulative case counts as their new cases.
“There’s not a dramatic difference,” Orcena said.
When the numbers are as low as they currently are, he added that “a couple of cases make a huge difference.”
He said a comparison between school districts isn’t necessarily the most useful application of the data, though.
As time goes on, Orcena said individuals should “look at a pattern over time.” He said the progression of cases at schools should be compared to numbers within the community as a whole.
If school case counts are growing but cases within Union County are not, he said that would be reason to further investigate.
He also emphasized that cases listed in the state dashboard simply mean a student in that district tested positive, not that COVID-19 was contracted while they were at school.
“Right now, we’re not seeing transmission events related to work or in school,” Orcena said.
Allen also said that health officials reported that it appears none of the reported cases in her district were spread at school events. She said the cases appear to stem from family events and noted one incident in which a child’s sleepover resulted in several cases.
Orcena said families should continue to “ask questions of those they trust,” including school district and health department officials.
He said their insight and information is likely more useful to families than the state dashboard.
“By itself, the (ODH) data table doesn’t tell us a lot, it’s just an effort to be transparent,” Orcena said.